Mathematician: Practice Question 1

You sell all of your Bitcoin holdings at 61127 and you are now watching BTC run away higher. You identified the price area of 58400 as a likely stop loss hunt zone but on the current chart below, price did not go there. You are assessing your options and decide to use probability to do so, and you decide to allow one month for BTC to hit your limit buy(s). If the implied volatility is 70% and the current price is 63612 as per the chart below, what is the probability that 58400 will be reached within one month’s time (31 days)? Use this link.